PUBLIC LECTURE: 8 PM (Ohio Union)
Aaron M. Ellison
Harvard University, Harvard Forest
Tipping points and regime shifts: fact, fiction, or fantasy?
A rapid change (“tipping point”) in social, political, or environmental conditions can propel the current state of a system into a new state (a.k.a. a “regime shift”). Forecasting tipping points and forestalling or accelerating regime shifts have received substantial attention from scientists not only because they present interesting mathematical and statistical challenges but also – and more importantly – because they are of pressing interest to world leaders, social planners, policy- and decision-makers, along with environmental managers, conservation biologists, and many others. But definitions and identification of tipping points and regime shifts presuppose a number of implicit assumptions about “how the world works”. More nuanced descriptions and understanding of the ever-present changes in our socio-cultural-political-technological environment require us to make explicit our unspoken or hidden assumptions about how we think the world works.
Host: GEES